Pretty Maps of Housing Price "Collapse": Bay Area, Palm Springs

[drscott]

These appeared on Zillow a few weeks ago, and agree with the anecdotal understanding I have. People have complimented me on our excellent timing in selling our house in Sunnyvale (which was unintentional -- I just wanted to get out from under the maintenance), but the ironic bit is that it's actually worth about 5% more now. Desirable Bay Area properties are even higher than before the crash, while second-best houses, neighborhoods, and far-out areas attractive to lower middle class folks are in freefall.

Another data point: our friends John and Mark (who moved to Palm Springs last year, though Mark is here every week working) put their Atherton place up for sale at $4.195 million. It sold after two days on the market for much more than that. Since building the new house cost so much, they're not clearing anything like that amount, but still...

Some weakness in SoMa (where we might buy next) and half price sales in Cathedral City/Rancho Mirage (where we might also buy.)

Comments

[pklexton.livejournal.com]

Pretty maps indeed. If this is Zillow's data, though, its prettiness may be its only reliable use. I understand Zillow is generally accurate to within about 20% of actual value, although it certainly seems intuitively correct that the inland areas are fairing a lot worse than the coastal core areas. Still, I think Mark and John were lucky (as were you). Just in the last couple of weeks, at least anecdotally, we have started to see a lot more inventory coming onto the market and not much sign of an uptick of what is moving, so it could be that the wave just hasn't reached the shore yet.

[dr-scott.livejournal.com]

Zillow is a terrible appraisal service; their info is too old and knows little about conditions. But as a general look at what areas are doing relatively it's good enough. I do think as the credit crunch strikes more and more areas, our local spenders will start to pull back, but the last to weaken will be the very best locales.

[theoctothorpe.livejournal.com]

So what's a good alternative site that does what Zillow does, but with more accurate data?

[dr-scott.livejournal.com]

Not aware of any better. The problem is the varying quality of the databases available, the tricks the industry uses to confuse or hide true sales prices, and the lack of public data on housing quality (beyond initial building permits, square footage, etc.) No appraisal using comps is all that good for unique properties in fast-moving markets, and trying to do it via computer on the web is even harder.