Expected 4-year change in SF house prices: -25.9%

Panic! Futures markets predict 4-year decline in metro SF house prices of 25.9%.

I don't really think this is likely, despite the pretty good prediction record of other futures markets. But it could easily happen in outlying areas like Stockton and Modesto which had been riding high on subprime loans and spillover from the Bay Area's market.

We might be in the market sooner than we thought, so I wouldn't mind seeing a little depreciation....