Eek! Be very afraid, Southern Californians

I heard something on the news last night about a study of the southern San Andreas fault; locked for 300 years, overdue for a Big One. I wasn't too alarmed, but the more thorough text stories are scary. It appears that some scientific wishful thinking about the network of faults in the Coachella Valley gradually releasing the accumulating stress is ruled out by the study, which used detailed GPS and satellite data to show that the fault is truly locked along a segment from San Bernardino to the Salton Sea. This implies that the yearly probability of a massive (1906-SF-level) quake along this segment is very high, and if it unlocks from south to north, it will send a wave of focused energy into the Los Angeles basin, with resulting destruction and death on a scale never seen in this country.

It may not happen for another 20 years, or it could be this afternoon.

[detailed report in Science here, but it may be behind a wall]

( Additional commentary from a disaster planning doc... )